The space for such maneuvering is created by the discord in the US-led coalition, which cannot reconcile the military goal of defeating the so-called Islamic State with the political goal of removing the al-Assad regime from power. It is far more beneficial for the Russian leadership to combine the relentless airstrikes with diplomatic maneuvering aimed at securing a major and, essentially, a deliberately disruptive role in any negotiations on the Syrian catastrophe ( Novaya Gazeta, February 17). Yet, Moscow has sought to distance itself from such an inflexible position (, February 17). This operation perfectly complements Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s intention to continue the war until the complete victory over all rebels. The Russian high command hopes for a resonant victory, and in order to deflect accusations of heavy civilian casualties, it deployed to the Latakia airbase the most modern Tu-214R electronic surveillance plane, which should improve targeting ( Nezavisimaya Gazeta, February 20). Russia sees the capture of the ruins of this major city as a possible turning point in the deadlocked civil war ( Rbc.ru, February 8). Moscow, however, had no intention of checking its offensive against Aleppo, whose fleeing inhabitants have added to the exodus of refugees flowing toward Europe. No mechanism was created for enforcing the ceasefire and no real commitments were made, but many in the West were inclined to believe that, moving into its fifth month of risky intervention, Russia understood the futility of pursuing a military victory on the ground. Medvedev’s “New Cold War” address was generally discouraging, but the deal on Syria generated some positive expectations, despite the fact that it was not really a deal but rather a “memorandum of understanding” ( Rbc.ru, February 12). Though the Munich conference also registered a warning from Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev about the risk of a “third world war” ( Nezavisimaya Gazeta, February 15). The deal that was negotiated on the side lines of the Munich security conference between United States Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was the high point of the high-level event. And in hindsight, it is rather obvious that it never had a chance. A ceasefire in Syria, which appeared possible if not probable in early February, has again turned out to be unreachable.
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